Bullion Note

Why Central Bank Buying Tells a Different Story This Quarter

The headline numbers on central bank gold demand look bullish — net purchases near an eleven-year high. But strip out the one-off flows from two large Eastern European reserve managers and the structural picture gets considerably more complicated. Demand from traditionally consistent buyers — the Gulf, Southeast Asia, and China's official sector — is softer quarter-on-quarter. That divergence between headline net purchases and underlying structural flow matters more for price direction than the top-line figure suggests.